Housing Affordability and Market Corrections – Paragon Report

18 Nov

Housing Affordability and Market Corrections – Paragon Report

A look at San Francisco Bay Area housing affordability trends over time and how they intersect with real estate market corrections:

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The 2008 San Francisco Bay Area real estate crash was not caused just by a local affordability crisis: It was triggered by macro-economic events in financial markets which affected real estate markets across the country. It’s important to note that in the past, major corrections to Bay Area home prices did not occur in isolation, but parallel to national economic events. Ongoing speculation onlocal “bubbles” often neglect to remember this.

Still, dwindling affordability is certainly a symptom of overheating, of a market being pushed perhaps too high. Looking at the chart above, it’s interesting to note that the markets of all Bay Area counties hit similar and historic lows at previous market peaks in 2006-2007, i.e. the pressure that began in the San Francisco market spread out to pressurize surrounding markets until all the areas bottomed out in affordability. This suggests that one factor or symptom of a correction, is not just a feverish San Francisco market, but that buyers can’t find affordable options anywhere in the area. We are certainly seeing that radiating pressure on home prices occurring now, starting in San Francisco and San Mateo (Silicon Valley) and surging out to all points of the compass.

San Francisco, with a Housing Affordability Index (HAI) reading of 10% is about 2% above its all-time historic low in Q3 2007, but affordability in most other Bay Area counties, while generally declining, still remain significantly above their previous lows. By this measure, the situation we saw in 2007-2008 has not yet been replicated.

Significant increases in mortgage interest rates would affect affordability quickly and dramatically, as interest rates along with, of course, housing prices and household incomes, play the dominant roles in this calculation.

Note that Affordability ratios are just one relatively blunt measuring tool, and there are certainly other factors at play affecting our real estate market: local (high-tech boom; surging population, employment and wealth; inadequate housing supply, rental rates, etc.), national (financial markets, unemployment rates, consumer confidence, etc.) and, nowadays, even international economic factors (such as recent events in the Chinese stock markets and the EU).

Information on the methodology behind the California Association of Realtors’ HAI can be found here: www.car.org/marketdata/data/haimethodology/

Speaking of financial markets, we decided to take a look at how the recent volatility played out in the S&P 500 and the Shanghai stock indices. These indices are constantly fluctuating, but the general picture has not altered significantly since we graphed this in early November:

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